The Last 8 Years Were the Hottest on Record

By Henry Fountain and Mira Rojanasakul, The New York Times, Jan. 10, 2023

The world remained firmly in warming’s grip last year, with extreme summer temperatures in Europe, China and elsewhere contributing to 2022 being the fifth-hottest year on record, European climate researchers said on Tuesday.

The eight warmest years on record have now occurred since 2014, the scientists, from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, reported, and 2016 remains the hottest year ever.

Overall, the world is now 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than it was in the second half of the 19th century, when emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels became widespread.

Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus service, said the underlying warming trend since the pre-industrial age made 2022’s ranking in the top five “neither unexpected or unsurprising.”

“The rare event now would be to see a really cold year,” he said.

Last year was among the warmest despite the persistence of La Niña for the third consecutive year. La Niña is a climate pattern marked by colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that tend to suppress global temperatures.

“We are continuing the long-term warming trend of the planet,” said Zeke Hausfather, a researcher at Berkeley Earth, an independent organization that analyzes environmental data. “If you draw a straight line through temperatures since 1970, 2022 lands almost exactly on where you’d expect temperatures to be.”

Berkeley Earth will issue its own analysis of 2022 data later this week, as will NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Copernicus scientists said Europe had its hottest summer ever in 2022, with several heat waves rolling across the continent that set temperature records in many cities. Separate research has shown that heat waves in Europe are increasing in frequency and intensity at a faster rate than almost anywhere else, fueled by warming but also, most likely, by shifts in atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

The effects of such a warm year were felt elsewhere around the world as well. Eastern and Central China, Pakistan and India all experienced lengthy and extreme heat waves in 2022, and monsoon floods in Pakistan ravaged much of the country. The heat and accompanying dryness also contributed to extensive wildfires in the Western United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/climate/earth-hottest-years.html?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20230110&instance_id=82345&nl=climate-forward&regi_id=66704053&segment_id=122127&te=1&user_id=97eb24ff9121d1a70f01fac05f86ea1b

3 ways to tap billions in new money to go green — starting next month

In 2023, you can electrify your home — and your car — with the help of the U.S. government. Here’s how.

By Shannon Osaka, The Washington Post, Dec. 29, 2022

Earlier this year, Congress passed the biggest climate bill in history — cloaked under the name the “Inflation Reduction Act.” But while economists say the bill may not reduce inflation very much, it could do one important thing for a country trying to move away from fossil fuels: Spur millions of households across America to switch over to cleaner energy sources with free money.

10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint

Starting in the new year, the bill will offer households thousands of dollars to transition over from fossil-fuel burning heaters, stoves and cars to cleaner versions. On Jan. 1, middle-income households will be able to access over a half-dozen tax credits for electric stoves, cars, rooftop solar and more. And starting sometime in mid-2023, lower-income households will be able to get upfront discounts on some of those same appliances — without having to wait to file their taxes to get the cash back. This handy online tool shows what you might be eligible for, depending on your Zip code and income.

But which credits should Americans focus on — and which are best for the climate? Here’s a guide to the top climate-friendly benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, and how to access them.

Heat pumps — the best choice for decarbonizing at home

Tax credit available on Jan. 1: 30 percent of the cost, up to $2,000

Income limit: None

Ah, heat pumps — one of the most popular technologies of the transition to clean energy. “Heat pump” is a bit of a misnomer for these machines, which are more like super-efficient combo air conditioning and heating systems. These appliances run on electricity and move heat, instead of creating it, and so can be three to five times more efficient than traditional gas or electrical resistance heaters.

“For a lot of people, a heat pump is going to be their biggest personal impact,” said Sage Briscoe, the federal senior policy manager at Rewiring America, a clean-energy think tank. (Heat pumps have become so iconic that Rewiring America even has a heat pump mascot.)

Heat pumps can have enormous cost and carbon savings. According to one analysis using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, switching to a heat pump can save homeowners anywhere from $100 to $1,200 per year on heating bills and prevent anywhere from 1 to 8 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. For comparison, going vegan for an entire year saves about 1 metric ton of CO2 emissions.

But many consumers encounter obstacles when switching over to heat pumps. In some areas, it can be difficult to find a contractor trained and willing to install them; some homeowners report that contractors share misinformation about heat pumps, including that they don’t work in cold climates. (Modern heat pumps do work in cold climates, and can heat a home even when outdoor temperatures are down to minus-31 degrees Fahrenheit.) Briscoe recommends that homeowners look for skilled contractors who know about heat pumps and do advance research to figure out which models might work best for their home.

Electric vehicles — top choice for cutting car emissions

Tax credit available on Jan. 1: Up to $7,500 depending on the make and model of the car

Income limit: <$150,000 for single filers; <$300,000 for joint filers

If you are like the millions of Americans who don’t live in a community with ample public transit, the best way to decarbonize your transport is switching to an electric car. But electric cars can be prohibitively expensive for many Americans.

Starting Jan. 1, a new EV tax credit will offer consumers up to $7,500 off the purchase of an electric vehicle. For the first few months, Americans will get somewhere between $3,751 and $7,500 off their purchase of an EV, depending on the size of the battery in the car.

There are limitations, per the new law. The vehicles will also have to be assembled in North America, and cars that cost more than $55,000 aren’t eligible, nor are vans or trucks that cost more than $80,000. This week, the Internal Revenue Service provided a list of vehicles that are expected to meet the criteria starting Jan. 1.

Beginning about March, however, that $7,500 credit will be split into two parts: Consumers can get a $3,750 credit if the vehicle has a battery containing at least 40 percent critical minerals from the United States (or a country that the United States has a free-trade agreement with) and another $3,750 credit if at least 50 percent of the battery’s components were assembled and manufactured in North America. Those rules haven’t been finalized yet, so the tax credit starting on Jan. 1 is a stopgap measure until the White House has ironed out the final version.

Joe Britton, the executive director of the EV industry group Zeta, said that means there will likely be a wider group of vehicles eligible for the full tax credit in January and February than there will be later in 2023. Because of this, he recommended that potential EV owners act fast in 2023.

“I would be buying a car in the first quarter,” he said.

Rooftop solar — the best choice for generating clean energy

Tax credit available now: 30 percent of the cost of installation, no cap

Income limit: None

For those who want to generate their own clean energy, there is always rooftop solar panels. This tax credit has actually been available since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law in August 2022. It offers a tax credit equal to 30 percent of the cost of installing rooftop solar, with no cap. According to Rewiring America, the average 6 kilowatt solar installation costs about $19,000, making the average solar tax credit about $5,700. (The Inflation Reduction Act also includes a 30 percent tax credit for homeowners that need to upgrade their electricity panel for rooftop solar, and a 30 percent tax credit for installing battery storage.)

Solar panels can save homeowners tens of thousands of dollars in utility bills and, when combined with battery storage, can also provide a power backup in the case of a blackout or other disaster. For someone trying to move their entire home away from fossil fuels, solar panels become even more enticing: Switch everything over to electricity, and then make the electricity super cheap with the help from the sun.

For people who don’t own their own homes, there are other options as well. Renters can subscribe to a community solar project to lower their electricity bills and get indirect benefits from the tax credits.

Tips, tricks and words of caution

There are many other credits also coming out in 2023: for EV chargers (up to $1,000), heat pump water heaters (up to $2,000), and even cash for sealing up the doors and windows of your home (up to $1,200).

The most important thing to know, Briscoe said, is whether you qualify for the upfront discounts for low- and moderate-income Americans — which won’t be available until later in 2023 — or the tax credits, which will be available Jan. 1. (Try this tool.) If going the tax credit route, it’s better to spread the upgrades out across multiple years, since there is an annual limit on how many of the credits you can claim in a given year. And, she warned, it is not always going to be easy: It can be hard to find the right installers and the right information for how to make use of all the available government resources.

But ultimately, Briscoe said, how you start decarbonizing your life isn’t as important as just starting.

“It’s like dieting or any other change in your life,” she said. “You have to take the first step, and then another step.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/12/29/climate-tax-credits-clean-energy/

What’s a “carbon border adjustment mechanism,” and what does it mean for U.S. exports?

By Andy Uhler, Marketplace, Dec. 14, 2022

European Union officials announced a plan Tuesday to impose a tax on imports based on the greenhouse gases emitted in making them. It’s called a carbon border adjustment mechanism, and it would be the world’s first tax on the carbon content of imported goods. 

It’s sure to have implications for international trade — especially for countries that don’t have a set price for carbon emissions, like the U.S. 

The carbon border adjustment mechanism, essentially a tariff, would initially apply to the most energy-intensive products. “Iron and steel and cement and aluminum and fertilizer,” said Noah Kaufman, an economist at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Europe already has a carbon-pricing system to offset the emissions linked to manufacturing products, he said. So countries there want to level the playing field.

“If you’re charging a carbon price on stuff produced at home, you want to charge the same carbon price on things that you import,” said Roberton Williams, a professor of environmental economics at the University of Maryland.

Ultimately, this discourages the importing of cheaper, energy-intensive goods from places like China and the U.S. because firms in those countries will be hit with this new tariff.

The European Union is trying to set up a sort of climate club, per Shi-Ling Hsu, who teaches environmental law at Florida State University.

“If you could set up this club of free trade, where, in order to get in, you’ve got to have some sort of a carbon price, then that flips those incentives around to create some impetus within a country to say, ‘Hey, let’s get a carbon price so we can get in on this club,’” Hsu said.

This new precedent will likely force industry leaders and policymakers to talk about establishing a carbon price in the U.S. — even if they’re against it, he said.

“I suspect the U.S. will push back fairly hard, or at least industries will push back hard,” said Tom Lyon, faculty director of the Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan.

That pushback will likely come in the form of lobbying and political contributions to maintain the status quo, he said.

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/12/14/whats-a-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-and-what-does-it-mean-for-u-s-exports/

Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

In a new report, the international group said that solar, wind and other renewable sources will expand much more swiftly than forecast last year.

By Elena Shao, The New York Times, Dec. 6, 2022

Worldwide, growth in renewable power capacity is set to double by 2027, adding as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the past two decades, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

Renewables are poised to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025, the report found, a pattern driven in large part by the global energy crisis linked to the war in Ukraine.

“This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis can be a historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system,” said Fatih Birol, the I.E.A. executive director, in a news release.

The expansion of renewable power in the next five years will happen much faster than what the agency forecast just a year ago in its last annual report, said Heymi Bahar, a senior analyst at the I.E.A. and one of the lead authors of the report. The report revised last year’s forecast of renewable growth upward by 30 percent after the introduction of new policies by some of the world’s largest emitters, like the European Union, the United States and China.

While there has been a wartime resurgence in fossil fuel consumption as European countries have scrambled to replace gas from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in February, the effects are likely to be short-lived, the agency said.

Instead, over the next five years, the global energy crisis is expected to accelerate renewable energy growth as countries embrace low-emissions technology in response to soaring fossil fuel prices, including wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Heating and cooling buildings with renewable power is one of the sectors that needs to see larger improvement, the report said.

The United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act this year, a landmark climate and tax law that, among many investments to reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, made an “unforeseen” expansion in long-term tax credits for solar and wind projects extending through 2032, Mr. Bahar said. Previously, these tax credits had been revised a few years at a time. Extending the credits until 2032 provides better certainty for investors, which is important in the energy industry, Mr. Bahar said.

China alone is forecast to install almost half of the new global renewable power capacity over the next five years, based on targets set in the country’s new five-year plan. Even still, the country is accelerating coal mining and production at coal-burning power plants.

The recent momentum in renewable energy growth is not enough to help the world limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial levels, said Doug Vine, director of energy analysis at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. The goal was set by the landmark Paris climate agreement in 2015; beyond that threshold, scientists say the risk of climate catastrophe, including deadly heat waves and coastal flooding, increases significantly.

Scientists have calculated that meeting the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal would require countries to curb or offset all carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. “We are still not there,” Mr. Bahar said, but the agency’s new report indicates that narrowing the gap is “within the reach of government policies and actions.”

The main obstacles in wealthy countries are lengthy permitting procedures and lack of improvements and expansion to grid infrastructure, the report said. Some European countries have made progress on that front, including Germany, which has reduced permitting timelines, and Spain, which has streamlined permitting and increased grid capacity for renewable energy projects.

For low-income countries, the report said, the challenge is both weak grid infrastructure and the lack of access to affordable financing for renewable projects, which require higher upfront costs for capital than they do for maintenance and operation. High interest rates on loans are often a barrier for many lower-income countries that are the most vulnerable yet least responsible for climate change.

At last month’s United Nations climate conference in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, many global leaders made calls to overhaul two powerful financial institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which represent a global financial system that the leaders say disadvantages poorer countries. If implemented, supporters say, the reforms could offer struggling countries lower interest rates and enable financial institutions to attract trillions of dollars in private capital to help those countries transition to renewable energy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/climate/iea-renewable-energy-coal.html?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20221206&instance_id=79458&nl=climate-forward&regi_id=66704053&segment_id=115183&te=1&user_id=97eb24ff9121d1a70f01fac05f86ea1b

With Federal Aid on the Table, Utilities Shift to Embrace Climate Goals

As billions in government subsidies were at stake, the electric utility industry shed its opposition to clean-air regulation and put its lobbying muscle behind passing President Biden’s climate bill.

By Eric Lipton, New York Times, Nov. 29, 2022

WASHINGTON — Just two years ago, DTE Energy, a Michigan-based electric utility, was still enmeshed in a court fight with federal regulators over emissions from a coal-burning power plant on the western shore of Lake Erie that ranks as one of the nation’s largest sources of climate-changing air pollution.

But in September, Gerard M. Anderson, who led DTE for the last decade, was on the South Lawn of the White House alongside hundreds of other supporters of President Biden, giving a standing ovation to the president for his success in pushing a climate change package through Congress — a law that will help accelerate the closure of the very same coal-burning behemoth, known as DTE Monroe, that his company had been fighting to protect.

Mr. Anderson’s position reflects a fundamental shift among major electric utilities nationwide as they deploy their considerable clout in Washington: After years of taking steps like backing dark-money groups to sue the government to block tighter air pollution rules, DTE and a growing number of other utilities have joined forces to speed the transition away from fossil fuels.

Their new stance is driven less by evolving ideology than the changing economics of renewable energy, fueled in part by the sheer amount of money the federal government is putting on the table to encourage utilities to move more quickly to cleaner and more sustainable sources of energy like solar and wind.

In that way, it is a leading example of the effects of the Biden administration’s willingness to engage in what is often called industrial policy: providing public funding to bolster critical industries in support of the nation’s broad strategic goals.

But if industrial policy initiatives can provide powerful incentives to corporations to pursue those goals, they also inevitably raise questions about whether they are constructed in ways that reward companies for taking actions that market forces would lead them to take anyway — an issue that hovers over the legislation embraced by both Mr. Biden and the electric utilities.

With the passage of the climate and economic policy bill known as the Inflation Reduction Act, DTE and other big utilities like American Electric Power, NextEra Energy and Southern Company stand to benefit from the largest package of subsidies ever granted to the industry.

It is a 10-year, $220 billion hodgepodge of tax breaks and major changes in federal tax law and other climate-change-inspired inducements that amount to a kind of lobbyist wish list never before considered even remotely possible by the industry.

With so much on the line financially, the industry ramped up spending on lobbyists to help push the package through the House and the Senate. It has also directed at least $17 million in campaign contributions to lawmakers since last year, targeting in particular key players like Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic majority leader, and Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, whose consent was vital to getting the measure passed.

The legislation will do more than just accelerate efforts to meet climate change goals, according to an analysis by The New York Times of the 273-page law.

Buried in the hundreds of pages are carefully crafted provisions that will eventually help electric utilities gain additional profits for years to come, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars per year for some of the larger players, according to Wall Street analysts.

In the course of its two-year lobbying effort, the industry managed to help knock out of the legislation measures that would have mandated actions to curb pollution, largely leaving only those provisions that rewarded it for doing so — in effect securing more carrots while tossing aside the stick.

“Let’s be honest — these guys can say all they want about the environment and how we are all aligned,” said Shahriar Pourreza, who has spent two decades studying the utility industry for Wall Street firms. “But you strip back the layers of the onion and this is also a major long-term growth opportunity for these utilities.”

Mr. Anderson, who stepped down as chairman of DTE this past summer but still serves as an officer with the utility trade association’s foundation, said his commitment to the package reflected a conviction that utilities must help confront climate change.

“Everybody figured out this is the future,” he said, while on the South Lawn, just before Mr. Biden celebrated the passage of the legislation. “This is something we need to be for. That we should be for. It was a sea change in our mind-set.”

But in a follow-up interview, Mr. Anderson, who participated in more than 120 personal appeals to members of Congress to help push the legislation through, agreed that the terms were attractive for the industry.

The benefits come in part from the extension of about-to-expire tax breaks for the industry for as long as two decades, a provision that alone is worth more than $120 billion. Lawmakers also significantly expanded the kinds of things utilities can spend money on and still get a generous tax break for, like new energy storage equipment.

The new law also allows utilities that build clean-energy installations to sell large chunks of their tax perks to other companies or Wall Street investors, even those that have no connection to the energy industry. In effect, the legislation is reviving a tax-law loophole that was revoked by Congress four decades ago after major American corporations — including General Electric — employed the provision so aggressively that it allowed them to avoid paying almost any federal income taxes despite enormous profits.

The law Congress passed is so generous — with tweaks pushed by industry lobbyists — that it surprised even some veteran corporate tax lawyers.

“The Capitol Hill tax staff, they tell us this is crazy, we are never going to do that,” said David Burton, a corporate tax lawyer whose clients include energy companies, recalling the reaction at first to the plan to revive the ability of companies to sell tax breaks to the highest bidder, known as transferability.

“It is like selling a used car,” he said. “I have the tax break and I can convey it to you. For a long time that has been absolutely contrary to U.S. tax policy. But now it is law.”

The energy companies are among the class of winners that is now emerging from the hundreds of billions in subsidies that the administration and Congress have approved over the last two years. Those winners also include battery makers, broadband providers, highway builders, mining companies, automakers and semiconductor manufacturers.

Mr. Biden’s acceptance of industrial policy initiatives is a defining feature of his administration. The result has been a federal government that has teamed up with the private sector at a scale unlike anything the United States has seen since at least the Depression or World War II, with potential economic and political risks as well as benefits.

Embracing Biden

They gathered in early February beneath a portrait of Abraham Lincoln in the White House’s State Dining Room, a room that has hosted countless world leaders over the decades. On that day it was filled by some of the top executives at the nation’s largest electric utility companies, including Mr. Anderson from DTE, as well as the bosses from Southern Company, American Electric Power, Duke Energy and several of the other giant utilities that dominate the nation’s power sector.

It was unseasonably mild for midwinter in Washington — the temperature reached 54 — and the agenda was global warming and what these companies could do, in an alliance with the White House, to help address it.

The power plants run by these executives are by far the single biggest source of carbon dioxide and other air pollution in the United States. The companies are all members of a powerful trade association called the Edison Electric Institute, which organized the gathering. Collectively, the members of E.E.I., as it is known, provide electricity to 235 million Americans in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia.

As members of the group sat around a large table, Mr. Biden was blunt about what was at stake as he pushed Congress to take steps toward meeting a goal of allowing the nation to produce all its electricity carbon free by 2035.

“I’ve spent too much time this last year flying in helicopters over areas of scorched earth,” Mr. Biden told them, referring to a rash of wildfires, blamed in part on climate change. “More territory is burned to the ground in the West Coast than the entire state of New Jersey in terms of square miles,” he added. “It’s just stunning. Absolutely stunning.”

Mr. Biden also let the assembled group know that he was well aware that many of them in the past were hardly ready to rally behind him, alluding to when he served as vice president during the Obama administration and also pushed, often in the face of industry opposition, for ambitious climate change measures.

During that period, utilities were secretly sending millions of dollars to a law firm that filed litigation on their behalf to block the Clean Power Plan, enacted during the Obama administration. They also made large donations to Republican attorneys general who filed their own lawsuits to overturn air pollution and climate rules.

E.E.I. members, in some cases, even organized their own sophisticated, but covert, political operations to try to block renewable energy mandates.

The owner of Arizona Public Service, the state’s largest electric utility, secretly donated more than $10 million to help elect state regulators who would sabotage renewable energy requirements it opposed.

The company denied for several years that it had played a role in the scheme, until the F.B.I. opened an investigation. The company was subpoenaed and then confessed in 2019 that it had bankrolled the dark-money push.

But despite that history of opposition to clean-air regulations, the industry in recent years has been abandoning coal, largely for economic reasons. Southern Company, which serves 4.4 million electric utility customers in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, has long had one of the largest fleets of coal-burning power plants, and it waged an intense fight to protect them, including donations to climate change skeptics.

But late last year, Southern Company announced that it intended to close all but three of its coal plants by 2028, cutting its coal fleet capacity by 80 percent compared with 2007, and replacing it mostly with solar, natural gas and nuclear power.

Part of the shift away from coal was driven by federal mandates that were going to force the company to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade the plants to reduce toxic water pollution sent into area rivers and streams. At the same time, natural gas had emerged as a plentiful, cleaner and more affordable alternative, and the costs of renewables like solar and wind were coming down rapidly.

By the time of the meeting with Mr. Biden in February, executives from Southern, like DTE and other utilities, were ready to tell the president that they were on board to support legislation that would accelerate the industry’s move away from coal by providing tax breaks and other inducements.

“Partners in the federal government can enable this industry to move much more quickly than we would have otherwise, particularly with the tax provisions,” Nick Akins, the chairman of American Electric Power, which serves five million customers in 11 states, told Mr. Biden.

Mr. Akins pointed out that much of the value of the tax breaks that were then under debate in Congress would be passed on to ratepayers, in the form of smaller future electric power rate increases, since the federal government would effectively be subsidizing the cost of the transition to cleaner burning fuels.

But renewables even without federal subsidies are now cheaper than coal, meaning that the market was already giving the utilities plenty of incentive to change how they produced power.

Nor did they mention at this meeting with Mr. Biden that credit rating agencies were pressuring them to move more quickly to clean up their energy production, or face higher costs to borrow money. They also did not detail how the federal subsidies, by changing the economics of the power industry, were going to increase their own profits.

Turning Tax Breaks Into Profits

No company is better positioned to cash in on the subsidies than NextEra Energy, which serves six million customers in Florida as well as millions more in 38 other states that rely on electricity produced from wind and solar installations it has built to supply other utilities.

For every dollar that utilities like NextEra spend to build solar installations, they should be able to get as much as 60 percent back in the form of a so-called investment tax credit under the new law, if they tap into various bonuses, like building in a low-income area where land has previously been polluted.

In regulated markets — where state officials control how much utilities can charge for electricity — that tax credit will directly benefit ratepayers because the utilities must pass on savings like this to customers. NextEra said in late October that tax credits on already negotiated solar projects in Florida will save customers nearly $400 million, compared with higher bills they would pay if the company made the same investments without the tax credit.

But this tax credit will eventually benefit NextEra’s bottom line as well, because the subsidies will also accelerate the utility’s own equity investments in solar and wind capacity and other renewables. And the company can take its approximately 10 percent profit on this bigger base of capital spending, as permitted by state regulation.

“If they now put $2 down instead of $1, instead of making 10 cents, now they are making 20 cents,” said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, who tracks NextEra for Bank of America. “The profits are going up that way.”

Elsewhere across the nation, NextEra plans to build an additional 37 gigawatts of renewable power over the next four years — enough to serve about 25 million homes — more than doubling its existing inventory, which is already the largest in the nation. It earns an even higher profit on those contracts as the investments are not regulated. It can also get tax credits on upgrades to its existing wind and solar projects and to add battery capacity to store renewable power — all again increasing profitability.

“We can put more capital to work at a good return,” said Rebecca J. Kujawa, the president of NextEra Energy Partners, the unregulated part of the company. “Now I have decades of visibility to being able to do that profitably.

The tax subsidies have also increased the value of renewable projects owned by utilities, which is in part why many companies — including American Electric Power, North Carolina-based Duke Energy and Boston-based Eversource — are already putting some of them up for sale.

“It is a game changer,” Joe Nolan, the chief executive at Eversource, said in an interview, noting that it had spent $1 million six years ago to lease an offshore wind site that it now intends to sell, potentially for hundreds of millions of dollars. “There is no two ways about this.”

And that is just the start.

NextEra, based on previously granted subsidies, already has a $4.3 billion backlog of federal tax credits on its books — so much, in fact, that it has been unable to take advantage of them all, leading the company to carry them forward for use in future years.

The provision in the new law that will allow NextEra and other utilities to sell these tax credits to the highest bidder — including buyers that have nothing to do with the clean-energy business — gives them the opportunity to take in billions of dollars in cash payments in the coming years.

The offer is even sweeter when it comes to newer technologies, such as using hydrogen as a fuel source. Rather than waiting to claim the tax break after making certain kinds of these investments, utilities will be able to go to the Treasury Department and get a direct payment equal to the amount of the tax break as they bring it online — effectively a grant to cover part of the price tag.

The surge in inflation, interest rates and fuel prices has complicated the short-term profit picture, because regulated utilities will be under pressure to restrict capital spending as a way to limit rate increases, said Mr. Pourreza, the Wall Street analyst at Guggenheim Securities. The ability to use the tax credits years down the road also eliminates the urgency to shift further to renewables immediately.

But the overall financial benefits for many of these companies over the long term remains clear, he and other analysts said.

“More capital will be spent, and you’ll earn a higher return, which leads to higher margins and higher earnings growth,” Mr. Pourreza said. “It’s as simple as that.”

This smorgasbord of benefits inspired the big push by the utilities to persuade Congress to pass the proposals into law.

First came the tidal wave of campaign donations, which both shot up in total dollars and shifted from supporting Republicans who had worked to defeat climate change legislation to Democrats working to enact it.

NextEra, for example, whose political action committee and employees gave 90 percent of their campaign contributions to Republicans when President George W. Bush first entered office, has sent them only 43 percent in the 2022 political cycle, according to data assembled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Its single biggest beneficiary this election cycle: Mr. Schumer, who has collected more than $300,000 from the company’s employees or political committee. The next two top members of Congress on the list this cycle are Mr. Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona, whose votes were vital to getting the tax breaks passed into law.

Donors to Mr. Manchin — in the days after his announcement this summer that negotiations to reach a deal had stalled — included Dominion Energy of Virginia, NextEra, Exelon of Chicago, PG&E of San Francisco, and the parent company of Arizona Public Service, campaign finance records show.

Executives at Ryan L.L.C. — a Texas-based tax consulting firm that says it has helped electric utility companies secure more than $267 million in tax breaks — sent 40 separate contributions to Mr. Manchin last year, making the company one of his largest contributors, just above NextEra.

Brian Wolff, who oversees lobbying at E.E.I., the trade group, said he met with Mr. Manchin or his staff at least 30 times. The trade association brought in top executives from utilities that serve West Virginia to explain to Mr. Manchin and his aides why the legislation would benefit his constituents.

“We were working hand in hand with him,” Mr. Wolff said. “And I think it was really a perfect fit. There wasn’t anything that we were for that he wasn’t for.”

NextEra alone had at least 48 lobbyists registered on its behalf this year, more than half of whom previously worked on Capitol Hill or in the federal government. They include Don Nickles, a former Republican senator from Oklahoma.

The industry also managed to keep out of the plan a measure that would have imposed potentially millions of dollars’ worth of penalties on utilities that did not move fast enough to reduce air pollution that causes climate change.

“There was a carrot and stick approach, but that wasn’t very helpful,” Mr. Wolff said, summarizing arguments he made to members of Congress. “If you are punitive to our companies, then you are going to be punitive to our customers.”

The legislation, as passed, was hailed by environmentalists. The White House described the final package as “the most aggressive action to combat the climate crisis and improve American energy security in our nation’s history.”

The tax incentives, according to a recent analysis by a Princeton University energy research laboratory, could result in five times as much utility-scale solar and twice as many new wind farms compared with 2020 levels.

And beyond reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the legislation is expected to reduce other forms of air pollution from fossil-fuel power plants, like sulfur dioxide, that cause asthma attacks and other potentially fatal ailments.

DTE Energy, for example, announced early this month a move that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, when it was still being sued by the federal government as it defended its continued operations at the DTE Monroe coal-burning power plant.

The company has now raised the white flag: It is going to start the closure of the plant a dozen years sooner than planned by shutting down two coal-burning units in 2028, and it will close the plant entirely by 2035, which will be the end of coal for DTE. The plant is the third-largest source of carbon dioxide in the United States, emitting 15.7 million tons of the climate-changing pollutant last year.

DTE executives note that for their company, embracing the reduction of carbon emissions started at least six years ago. But moves like this are now happening across the industry.

For many years we would be sitting in a room and we’d be on opposite ends,” said Mr. Nolan, the chief executive at Eversource, who was among the industry executives celebrating the legislation’s passage at the White House in September. “Now, they got to get on board. They can’t deny climate change.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/us/politics/electric-utilities-biden-climate-bill.html?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20221129&instance_id=78802&nl=climate-forward&regi_id=66704053&segment_id=114484&te=1&user_id=97eb24ff9121d1a70f01fac05f86ea1b

Draft Report Offers Starkest View Yet of U.S. Climate Threats

“The things Americans value most are at risk,” says a draft of the National Climate Assessment, a major federal scientific report slated for release next year.

By Brad Plumer and Raymond Zhong, NY Times, Nov. 8, 2022

WASHINGTON — The effects of climate change are already “far-reaching and worsening” throughout all regions in the United States, posing profound risks to virtually every aspect of society, whether it’s drinking water supplies in the Midwest or small businesses in the Southeast, according to a draft scientific report being circulated by the federal government.

The draft of the National Climate Assessment, the government’s premier contribution to climate knowledge, provides the most detailed look yet at the consequences of global warming for the United States, both in the present and in the future. The final report isn’t scheduled to be published until late 2023, but the 13 federal agencies and hundreds of scientists who are compiling the assessment issued a 1,695-page draft for public comment on Monday.

“The things Americans value most are at risk,” says the draft report, which could still undergo changes as it goes through the review process. “More intense extreme events and long-term climate changes make it harder to maintain safe homes and healthy families, reliable public services, a sustainable economy, thriving ecosystems and strong communities.”

As greenhouse gas emissions rise and the planet heats up, the authors write, the United States could face major disruptions to farms and fisheries that drive up food prices, while millions of Americans could be displaced by disasters such as severe wildfires in California, sea-level rise in Florida or frequent flooding in Texas.

“By bringing together the latest findings from climate science, the report underscores that Americans in every region of the country and every sector of the economy face real and sobering climate impacts,” said John Podesta, a senior adviser to President Biden on clean energy, adding that the draft report was still undergoing scientific peer review and public comment.

The assessment isn’t entirely fatalistic: Many sections describe dozens of strategies that states and cities can take to adapt to the hazards of climate change, such as incorporating stronger building codes or techniques to conserve water. But in many cases, the draft warns, adaptation efforts are proceeding too slowly.

“The old narrative that climate change is something that’s happening to polar bears or it’s going to happen to your grandchildren — that was never true, but it is now obviously not true,” said one of the report’s authors, Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “There’s bad stuff happening now where we can very confidently say, ‘This wouldn’t have happened without climate change.’”

Under a law passed by Congress in 1990, the federal government is required to release the National Climate Assessment every four years, with contributions from a range of scientists across federal agencies as well as outside experts. The last assessment, released in 2018, found that unchecked warming could cause significant damage to the U.S. economy.

The Trump administration tried, but largely failed, to halt work on the next report, and its release was pushed back to 2023.

The draft report comes as world leaders are meeting in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, this week for the annual United Nations climate change summit. This year’s talks are focused on the harm that global warming is inflicting on the world’s poorest nations and the question of what rich countries should do to help. But the forthcoming U.S. assessment will offer a stark reminder that even wealthy nations will face serious consequences if temperatures keep rising.

The United States has warmed 68 percent faster than Earth as a whole over the past 50 years, according to the draft report, with average temperatures in the lower 48 states rising 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) during that time period. That reflects a global pattern in which land areas are warming faster than oceans are, and higher latitudes are warming faster than lower latitudes are as humans heat up the planet, primarily by burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal for energy.

Americans can now feel the effects of climate change in their everyday lives, the draft says. In coastal cities like Miami Beach, Fla., the frequency of disruptive flooding at high tide has quadrupled over the last 20 years as sea levels have risen. In Alaska, 14 major fishery disasters have been linked to changes in climate, including an increase in marine heat waves. In Colorado, ski industries have lost revenue because of declining snowfall.

Across the country, deadly and destructive extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, droughts and wildfires have already become more frequent and severe.

In the 1980s, the nation suffered an extreme weather disaster that caused at least $1 billion in economic damage about once every four months, on average, after adjusting for inflation. “Now,” the draft says, “there is one every three weeks on average.” Some extreme events, like the Pacific Northwest heat wave last year that killed at least 229 people, would have been virtually impossible without global warming.

Bigger hazards are on the way if global temperatures keep rising, the draft report says, although the magnitude of those risks will largely depend on how quickly humanity can get its fossil fuel emissions under control.

“When we look to the future, we can’t say with any certainty that, ‘Oh, we’re safe at 2 degrees, we’re safe at 1.5 degrees,’” Dr. Marvel said. “We don’t know exactly how the carbon cycle is going to change. We don’t know exactly how warm it’s going to get.” But what’s clear, she said, is that “the primary determinant of the future” is what humans do in the present.

The Biden administration has set a goal for the United States to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and to stop adding planet-warming pollution to the atmosphere altogether by 2050. But while America’s emissions have fallen in recent years, the report says, current efforts are “not sufficient” and emissions would need to decline at a much faster pace, by more than 6 percent per year, to meet that 2050 target.

And even if drastic action on emissions is taken today, the United States will still face rising climate risks through at least 2030 because of lags in the climate system — in other words, it would take some time for reductions in emissions to have an effect on the climate. That means every state in the country will need to take steps to adapt to growing hazards.

There are some encouraging signs. At least 18 states have now written formal adaptation plans, with another six in the works. Cities and communities across the country are increasingly aware of the dangers of global warming and are taking actions to protect themselves.

Yet many of those adaptation efforts are poorly funded and remain “incremental,” the draft says, instead of the “transformative” changes that are likely to be necessary to deal with climate effects. Instead of merely installing more air-conditioning in response to heat waves, cities could redesign buildings and parks to help stave off heat. In addition to elevating individual homes above floodwaters, states will need to redirect development from flood-prone areas.

The authors of the draft report also note that many risks from climate change may be hard to predict and defend against. As the planet warms, the dangers of “compound events” grow. In 2020, for example, a combination of record-breaking heat and widespread drought created large, destructive wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington that exposed millions of people to hazardous smoke and stretched firefighting resources.

And it is hard to foresee how American society will react to other potentially wrenching changes produced by global warming, which, the draft report says, could also include increased crime and domestic violence, harm to mental health and reduced opportunities for outdoor recreation. “These compounding stressors can increase segregation, reliance on social safety net programs and income inequality,” the report says.

Coral Davenport contributed reporting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/climate/national-climate-assessment.html?searchResultPosition=1